govandpolУправление и политикаGovernance and Politics2782-70622782-7070MGIMO University10.24833/2782-7062-2026-5-2-23-40govandpol-152Research ArticleПОЛИТОЛОГИЯPOLITICAL SCIENCEТеоретические подходы к устойчивости конкурентных президентских систем на примере Уругвая и ЧилиTheoretical Approaches to the Stability of Competitive Presidential Systems: The Cases of Uruguay and ChileВаршавскийА. Ю.VarshavskyA. Yu.

Варшавский Арсений Юрьевич – третий секретарь Посольства России в Никарагуа

Arseny Yu. Varshavsky, Third Secretary of the Embassy of Russia to Nicaragua

arsenyvarshavsky@gmail.comМИД РоссииРоссияMinistry of Foreign Affairs of RussiaRussian Federation202619072026522340Copyright © Варшавский А.Ю., 20262026Варшавский А.Ю.Varshavsky A.Y.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.gp-mgimo.ru/jour/article/view/152

Статья посвящена анализу основных теоретических подходов к исследованию выживаемости президентских политических систем в современной сравнительной политологии. В центре внимания находится проблема выживаемости демократий в условиях институциональных, социально-экономических и культурных вызовов, проявившихся после третьей волны демократизации. Автор предлагает сосредоточиться на анализе трёх аналитических направлений институционального, исторического и социокультурного, которые в совокупности формируют целостную исследовательскую рамку для понимания факторов стабильности современных политических систем с избираемым главой исполнительной власти. В качестве сравнительных примеров рассматриваются Уругвай и Чили как одни из наиболее устойчивых конкурентных президентских систем Латинской Америки, где после завершения периодов авторитарного правления были восстановлены выборные институты, сохранена партийная конкуренция и сформированы устойчивые практики коалиционного взаимодействия. Показано, что устойчивость президентских систем определяется качеством их функционирования, характером взаимодействия политических акторов и степенью институционализированности правил политической конкуренции. Особое внимание уделяется роли механизмов ограничения власти, согласованности элитных стратегий и способности политических институтов интегрировать социальные интересы. Во второй части раскрывается историческая перспектива, объясняющая устойчивость через долгосрочные траектории развития, закреплённые ключевыми поворотными моментами. Делается акцент на институциональной памяти и воспроизводстве практик, которые снижают вероятность резких отклонений от сложившегося порядка, но одновременно могут усиливать инерцию и затруднять реформы. Далее анализируются социокультурные объяснения, связывающие устойчивость с уровнем развития, социальным неравенством, политическим участием и ценностными ориентациями. В заключении статьи на основании кейсов Уругвая и Чили делается вывод о том, каким образом устойчивость современных президентских систем формируется через взаимодействие институтов, исторического наследия, социально-экономических условий и социокультурных характеристик политического развития.

This article examines the main theoretical approaches to the study of the stability of presidential political systems in contemporary comparative political science. The analysis centers on the problem of democratic survival in the context of institutional, socio-economic, and cultural challenges that have become particularly salient in the aftermath of the third wave of democratization. The author proposes concentrating on three analytical perspectives—institutional, historical, and sociocultural—which together form an integrated research framework for understanding the factors of stability in contemporary political systems with an elected head of the executive branch. Uruguay and Chile are examined as comparative examples of some of the most stable competitive presidential systems in Latin America, where, after the end of authoritarian rule, electoral institutions were restored, party competition was preserved, and stable practices of coalition interaction were established. The article shows that the stability of presidential democracies is determined by the quality of their functioning, the nature of interaction among political actors, and the degree of institutionalization of the rules of political competition. Particular attention is paid to the role of mechanisms that limit power, the coherence of elite strategies, and the capacity of political institutions to integrate social interests.

The second part examines the historical perspective, which explains stability through longterm trajectories of development shaped by key turning points. It emphasizes institutional memory and the reproduction of practices that reduce the likelihood of abrupt deviations from the established order, while also potentially reinforcing inertia and complicating reform. The third part analyzes sociocultural explanations that link stability to levels of development, social inequality, political participation, and value orientations. The conclusion, based on the cases of Uruguay and Chile, shows how the stability of contemporary presidential systems is formed through the interaction of institutions, historical legacies, socioeconomic conditions, and the sociocultural characteristics of political development.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.