govandpolУправление и политикаGovernance and Politics2782-70622782-7070MGIMO University10.24833/2782-7062-2023-2-2-55-82govandpol-43Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ ПОЛИТИКАINTERNATIONAL POLITICSТоргово-экономическое сотрудничество России и Китая в рамках Инициативы Пояса и Пути в условиях нового глобального порядкаInternational Trade Cooperation between Russia and China under the Belt and Road Initiative in the New Global OrderЮэЮйYuYue

Юй Юэ, аспирант Московской школы экономики

 Москва, Ленинские горы, д. 1, стр. 61, ГСП-1.

Yue Yu – Postgraduate student, Moscow School of Economics

GSP-1, 1-61 Leninskiye Gory, Moscow

 

yazsh777@163.comФэнШидэFengShide

Шидэ Фэн, аспирант 

117997,  Москва, Нахимовский проспект, д. 32.

Shide Feng – PhD Student, Institute of Far Eastern Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences

Nakhimovsky Ave, 32, Moscow, Russia, 117997.

shidefeng508@gmail.comМГУ имени М.В. ЛомоносоваРоссияLomonosov Moscow State UniversityRussian FederationИнститут Дальнего Востока РАНРоссияInstitute of Far Eastern Study of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (Russia)Russian Federation202306072023225582Copyright © Юэ Ю., Фэн Ш., 20232023Юэ Ю., Фэн Ш.Yu Y., Feng S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.gp-mgimo.ru/jour/article/view/43

В условиях продолжающейся трансформации международно-политического порядка, связанной с торговой войной Китая и США и специальной военной операцией России, продолжает перестраиваться и глобальный экономический ландшафт, при этом сотрудничество России и Китая в рамках Инициативы Пояса и Пути оказывает влияние на международные отношения в их региональном и глобальном измерениях. Автор статьи анализируют последствия санкций, введенных против Китая и России, для двусторонних отношений и оценивают взаимодополняемость и конкурентоспособность китайско-российской торговли с опорой на индексы ESI и RCA. В статье делается вывод о том, что две страны имеют различные сравнительные преимущества, дается оценка структуры торгово-экономических связей, обсуждается сотрудничество между Китаем и Россией в рамках Инициати вы Пояса и Пути. Авторы применяют модель авторегрессии (ARIMA) для прогнозирования торгово-экономических отношений между Китаем и Россией, и показывают, что объем китайско-российской торговли будет продолжать нарастать. Анализ осуществляется с учетом изменений современного мирового порядка и потенциала трансрегиональной инициативы Пояса и Пути.

In the context of the major changes in the international order with the trade friction between China and the United States and the Russian special military operation, the global economic landscape is being reorganized, and the moves of China and Russia, as major countries along the Belt and Road, are going to affct the whole region and the world. The article analyzes the sanctions imposed on China and Russia, using ESI and RCA indices to analyze the complementarity and competitiveness of Sino-Russian trade, and concludes that the two countries have different comparative advantages and complementary economic and trade structures. At the same time, it discusses the cooperation between China and Russia in the Belt and Road Initiative, and employs the arima model to forecast the economic and trade volume between China and Russia, which predicts that the volume of Sino-Russian trade will continue to grow. Finally it deals with the changes in the global order which inflence China and Russia, the Belt and Road cooperation, as well as emergence of new global thinking.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.